By: R Jay Molina
It’s true. The film industry has so many awards ceremonies that it’s difficult to keep track of them all. The only ones that seem to matter are the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards (Oscars for short), though the Globes are more like the pre-game before the party. But why should we care?
Unless you’re a film enthusiast, the Oscars ceremony or any awards show is about as important as Oprah’s family secrets. You just don’t care. However if you are a film enthusiast, you watch the ceremony with the hopes that your favorite film from the previous year is acknowledged. Die-hard fans of James Cameron’s “Avatar” were in complete shock that the sci-fi “Pocahontas” didn’t win for Best Picture. I wasn’t.
But I digress. With the Oscar nominations finally made public there can be endless debates, finger-pointing and exclamations of your predictions for who will win in all the categories. Since there are two dozen categories, I’m going to narrow it down to the ones that really matter: Best Actress and Actor in a Supporting Role, Best Actor and Actress in a Leading Role and Best Motion Picture.
It was a treat for me to see that all the women nominated for Best Supporting Actress were from independent movies. There’s Amy Adams for “The Fighter”, Helena Bonham Carter for “The King’s Speech”, Melissa Leo for “The Fighter,” Hailee Steinfield for “True Grit”, and Jacki Weaver for “Animal Kingdom”. Melissa Leo has my vote for winning. “The Fighter” has been the talk of the town lately, and she’s already won a Golden Globe. So it’s only natural that she wins an Oscar.
For Best Supporting Actor there’s Christian Bale for “The Fighter”, John Hawkes for “Winter’s Bone”, Jeremy Renner for “The Town,” Mark Ruffalo for “The Kids Are All Right”, and Geoffrey Rush for “The King’s Speech”. Before I saw “The King’s Speech,” I was behind Christian Bale for winning. Now, I’m not so sure. Geoffrey Rush’s performance in “Speech” was just as perfect as Bale’s performance in “Fighter”. But I’m going to stick with Bale, seeing as how he’s the favorite right now and the man really does deserve an Oscar. Rush already has an Oscar under his belt.
In the Best Actress category, Natalie Portman for “Black Swan” leads with a Golden Globe for Drama already on her shelf, and Annette Bening is right next to her for “The Kids Are All Right” with a Golden Globe for Comedy. Other women in the category include Nicole Kidman for “Rabbit Hole”, Jennifer Lawrence for “Winter’s Bone”, and Michelle Williams for “Blue Valentine”. Portman owns most of the award ceremonies this season, so it’s a safe bet that she will win an Oscar. Much like Christian Bale, Portman is overdue for one.
For Best Actor I hope, no, I firmly believe that James Franco will win for “127 Hours.” I mean let’s be serious here. An actor who can pull off a gig on “General Hospital”, play a pothead to a tee be the only redeeming character in one of the worst superhero movies of the past decade and masterfully portray a man who is faced with hacking his own arm off to survive from a slow death deserves and Oscar! If he doesn’t win I will go to Hollywood and hunt down the Academy for robbing this man of something that he clearly deserves! In case you’re curious, the other nominees are Javier Bardem for “Biutiful”, Jeff “the Dude” Bridges for “True Grit”, Jesse Eisenberg for “The Social Network”, and Colin Firth for “The King’s Speech”. Firth is my second choice for Best Actor. His portrayal of King George VI was just inspiring.
Finally for Best Motion Picture of the Year we have ten films that are nominated; “127 Hours,” “Black Swan”, “The Fighter”, “Inception”, “The Kids Are All Right”, “The King’s Speech”, “The Social Network”, “Toy Story 3”, “True Grit”, and “Winter’s Bone”. Narrowing the list down to the films most likely to win, “The Fighter”, “The Social Network”, “The King’s Speech”, and “127 Hours”.
The film that I think will win is “The Social Network.” The Academy will most likely pick a film that either speaks about a generation, or inspires them to do something inspiring. “The Social Network” has been the biggest surprise to come out of Hollywood because everyone thought, “Why would a movie about Facebook be interesting?” But the movie has proved to be an effective courtroom drama (outside of a courtroom) that not only speaks about a generation, but also shows an honest breakdown of communication, friendship and trust. It also helps that the screenplay by Aaron Sorkin contains some of the sharpest dialogue I have heard in a movie in a long time.
Now, I’m going to settle things with the die-hard “Inception” fans who think I’m wrong and believe that “Inception” should win. First, I love “Inception” and found it to be the best summer blockbuster since “The Dark Knight”. Second, that’s all it really is; a summer blockbuster. Even director Christopher Nolan acknowledges this. Third, the Academy is known for rejecting Sci-Fi movies from winning Best Picture. Take “Star Wars,” “District 9”, “Avatar”, and “E.T”. for example. It’s just the way it is.
Those are my predictions. What are yours?
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